One in four voters could switch their political allegiance ahead of the next general election – with the LibDems most likely to benefit, according to a new Omnisis poll.
More than a quarter (26%) said they would change their mind about which party they’d vote for with 46% saying they would not be likely to change their vote and 28% said neither.
Pollsters also found that 38% of people would consider voting tactically to prevent another party winning in their constituency. 44% said they wouldn’t vote tactically and 18% didn’t know.
The Liberal Democrats were top of the charts when people were asked which party they would most likely switch to, with most defectors coming from Labour.
Ironically, the largest percentage of predicted switchers could see 48% of LibDem voters voting Labour:
- 22% LibDem
(32% of predicted Labour voters were most likely to switch)
- 21% Labour
(48% of predicted LibDem voters – plus 46% of predicted Conservative voters - were most likely to switch)
- 17% Conservative
(33% of predicted Plaid Cymru voters were most likely to switch)
- 11% Green
(18% of predicted Reform UK – plus 16% of predicted Labour voters - most likely to switch)
- 8% Reform UK
(16% of predicted Conservative voters most likely to switch)
- 2% Plaid Cymru
(4% of predicted Labour voters most likely to switch)
- 1% SNP
(1% of predicted Labour voters most likely to switch)
- 18% a different party
Brian Cooper, Managing Director of Omnisis, said: “We were curious about voter behaviour and wanted to do a deeper dive on how likely people are to change their mind ahead of the next election and whether or not they’d vote tactically. The results are fascinating, especially when you can see which parties are most likely to lose voters to rivals.”
Meanwhile, on the Omnisis weekly voter intention trackers, Labour still command a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak clawed back seven points to record a -8 net approval rating this week.
ON VOTER INTENTION
- Lab 47% (+1)
- Con 27% (+2)
- LD 10% (NC)
- SNP 3% (NC)
- Ref 6% (NC)
- Green 5% (-2)
ON PRIME MINISTER’S APPROVAL
- Approve: 31% (+3)
- Disapprove: 39% (-4)
- Neither: 31% (+3)
ON WHO’D MAKE THE BEST PRIME MINISTER
- Sir Keir Starmer: 37% (+1) 36% (+1)
- Rishi Sunak: 28% (-1) 29% (-2)
- Don’t Know: 35% (NC)
ON BREXIT SENTIMENT
- Stay Out: 32% (+1)
- Re-join: 47% (-2)
- DK or not voting: 20%
Excluding don’t knows and will not votes
- Stay Out: 41% (+2) 39% (-2)
- Re-join: 59% (-2) 61% (+2)
This week’s poll which was conducted on 8th-9th June 2023, questioned 1,296 people and is weighted to a national representative population.
Tables will be posted here: https://www.omnisis.co.uk/poll-results